Thematic tailwinds → contract vehicles → segment mix → fundamentals → valuation. Every coloured line is a live, dollar-denominated linkage supported by disclosed awards or guidance.
Six years of actuals anchor three years of consensus. The inflection: Technology mix crosses 50%, margins expand, and ARKA adds a full FY of contribution from FY27.
| FY (Jun) | Revenue | Op Inc | Op Mgn | Net Inc | Dil EPS | CFO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY20 | $5,720M | $458M | 8.0% | $321M | $12.61 | $519M |
| FY21 | $6,044M | $539M | 8.9% | $457M | $18.30 | $592M |
| FY22 | $6,203M | $496M | 8.0% | $367M | $15.49 | $746M |
| FY23 | $6,703M | $568M | 8.5% | $385M | $16.43 | $388M |
| FY24 | $7,660M | $650M | 8.5% | $420M | $18.60 | $497M |
| FY25 | $8,628M | $764M | 8.9% | $500M | $22.32 | $547M |
| FY26E | $9,536M | — | ~9.2% | $515M | $28.25–28.92 | $725M+ |
| FY27E | $10,607M | — | — | $601M | $47.90 | $801M |
| FY28E | $11,265M | — | — | $705M | $53.04 | $880M |
Beat EPS 8 of 9 quarters. Post-earnings reactions positive 7 of 9. Q3 FY26 prints April 23, 2026 — consensus $2.35B / $6.90; options implying ±8.1%.
| Period | Report | Rev Act | Rev Est | Surprise | EPS Act | EPS Est | Beat | 1-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY24 | Jan 25 '24 | $1,834M | $1,842M | −$8M | $4.36 | $4.50 | −$0.14 | −1.7% |
| Q3 FY24 | Apr 25 '24 | $1,937M | $1,883M | +$54M | $5.74 | $5.53 | +$0.21 | +5.9% |
| Q4 FY24 | Aug 8 '24 | $2,038M | $1,933M | +$106M | $6.61 | $5.90 | +$0.71 | +3.1% |
| Q1 FY25 | Oct 24 '24 | $2,057M | $1,922M | +$135M | $5.93 | $5.08 | +$0.85 | +5.4% |
| Q2 FY25 | Jan 23 '25 | $2,100M | $2,041M | +$59M | $5.95 | $5.17 | +$0.78 | −9.3% |
| Q3 FY25 | Apr 24 '25 | $2,167M | $2,290M | −$123M | $6.23 | $5.53 | +$0.70 | +7.9% |
| Q4 FY25 | Aug 7 '25 | $2,304M | $2,292M | +$12M | $8.40 | $6.54 | +$1.86 | +5.2% |
| Q1 FY26 | Oct 23 '25 | $2,288M | $2,254M | +$34M | $6.85 | $6.20 | +$0.65 | +12.4% |
| Q2 FY26 | Jan 22 '26 | $2,220M | $2,272M | −$52M | $6.81 | $6.41 | +$0.40 | +3.6% |
| Q3 FY26 | Apr 23 '26 | — | $2,349M | — | — | $6.90 | — | ±8.1% implied |
CACI led the NatSecSvs group by ~2× from 2023–2024 highs; the recent pullback is a sector-wide re-rating, not company-specific deterioration.
| Ticker | Price | Mkt Cap | P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| CACI | $519.32 | $11.5B | 22.2× |
| LDOS | $153.91 | $19.5B | 13.8× |
| SAIC | $96.52 | $4.4B | 12.5× |
| BAH | $81.38 | $9.8B | 12.1× |
| KBR | $36.99 | $4.7B | 10.6× |
| PLTR | $146.72 | $336B | 232.9× |
| Firm | Rating | PT now | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | $787 | $752 |
| Stifel | Buy | $765 | $670 |
| Truist | Buy | $735 | $600 |
| JP Morgan | OW | $700 | $645 |
| Cantor | OW | $675 | $535 |
| BofA | Buy | $670 | — |
| Jefferies | Hold | $645 | $690 |
| Goldman | Buy | $624 | $567 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | $620 | $550 |
| Citi | Neutral | $614 | $721 |
Every high-conviction theme in the research library that CACI has direct operating exposure to, mapped to disclosed dollar-denominated programs.
Targets driven by FY27 consensus EBITDA ($1.32B) × multiple, cross-checked against EPS × P/E and DCF. Peer weighted average EV/EBITDA is 12× (LDOS/SAIC/BAH); BofA applies 16× (defense-prime multiple) to reflect CACI's technology mix.
The fundamentals say quality. 9% revenue CAGR over six years, margin expansion, 3.7× revenue backlog coverage, and free cash flow compounding through both organic growth and disciplined M&A.
The thematic map says alignment. CACI is a direct operating exposure to every high-conviction theme in the library — defense budget super-cycle, AI-driven C4ISR, space domain awareness, missile defense, electronic warfare, agile software modernization. ARKA formalizes the space leg; SHIELD formalizes the missile-defense leg; the RMT production order formalizes the EW leg.
The price action says opportunity. Stock is down 24% from the Nov '25 high of $683 despite management raising FY26 guidance on every metric. The pullback was sector-wide (LDOS, BAH, SAIC all down 20%+) triggered by shutdown-era O&M softness and DOGE noise — a macro head-fake, not a business deterioration.
The Street says conviction. Strong Buy consensus (77.8% bullish among 9 analysts), BofA top pick at $670, seven "Buy" upgrades with targets ranging $600–$787. Jefferies at Hold is the marginal dissent — not a rejection of the thesis.
The verdict. This is a +30% probability-weighted setup over 12 months, with three discrete catalysts (Apr 23 print, ARKA close, SHIELD flows) any one of which can re-accelerate the multiple. The asymmetry (−17% bear / +58% bull) is the most attractive it's been since early 2024. If you want one public-market ticker that expresses the full defense-tech thesis without the hype premium of PLTR or the mess of legacy gov services at BAH/LDOS — CACI is the cleanest shot.