CACI NYSE CACI International Inc · National Security Services
$519.32 −$2.75 (−0.53%)
As of 2026-04-21 · Market Open · FY ends June 30
Thesis. CACI is the highest-quality pure-play on durable U.S. national-security demand at a point where sector noise (shutdown-driven O&M softness, DOGE headlines) has compressed the multiple despite a $32.8B backlog, raised FY26 guidance, a transformational $2.6B ARKA acquisition adding space-based ISR, and positions on the $151B SHIELD / Golden Dome missile-defense vehicle. Technology mix now 58% of revenue and accelerating — the classic setup for multiple expansion as investors re-underwrite CACI from "gov services" to "defense tech platform."
CONVICTION BUY · Base Target $685 (+32%) · 12-month horizon
Market Cap
$11.47B
S&P MidCap 400
FY26 Guide (Raised)
$9.3–9.5B
Rev · adj EPS $28.25–28.92
Total Backlog
$32.8B
3.7× FY26 revenue
Funded Backlog
$4.4B
+7.3% YoY
NTM P/E
13.1×
vs 5Y avg 17×
Next Print
Apr 23
FY26 Q3 · in 2 days

How the Pieces Connect integrated thesis map

Thematic tailwinds → contract vehicles → segment mix → fundamentals → valuation. Every green line is a live, dollar-denominated linkage supported by disclosed awards or guidance.
MACRO THEMES Defense Budget Uplift $2.7T global mil-ex '24 +9.4% YoY · SIPRI record AI-Driven Cyber & C4ISR $66.1B FY26 DoD IT spend +2.8% YoY · AI/EW focus Golden Dome / Missile Def SHIELD IDIQ ceiling $151B · 10-year Space Domain Awareness LEO ISR, overhead sensors ARKA unlock Electronic Warfare BLOS denial, RF disruption RMT first production order Agile Software / Zero Trust DAI, NxG, SeaPort $306M DLA award · Apr '26 CACI CAPABILITIES Technology Segment · 58% EW, SIGINT, Space, C4I, RF +10.4% YoY Q2 Expertise Segment · 42% Mission services, systems eng Flat, re-mix opportunity ARKA (pending close) Space sensors + ground PED $2.6B all-cash · Blackstone Customer Mix DoD 52% · IC 24% · Civ 20% 96% federal, insulated FUNDAMENTAL OUTPUTS Revenue Accel FY20–26 CAGR ~9% $5.7B → $9.4B (mid) EBITDA Margin Expansion 10.6% → 11.8%+ +70 bps Q2 FY26 FCF Acceleration FY26 ≥ $725M +Sect174 + $40M refund Backlog Coverage $32.8B total, +3.1% YoY 3.7× revenue visibility Capital Returns $168M FY25 buyback Shares 25.5M → 22.3M Awards Momentum 1H FY26 awards $6.4B +42.9% YoY · 1.4× book:bill VALUATION / VERDICT BofA 2026 TOP PICK PO $670 · Buy · 16× EV/EBITDA Implies +29% from $519 Consensus (16 analysts) Avg $685 · Hi $787 · Lo $614 7 Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell Strong Buy · 77.8% bullish Our Base Target $685 +31.9% upside · 15.5× EV/EBITDA on FY27E $1.32B EBITDA

Financial Evolution & Projections FY20 actuals → FY28 consensus

Six years of actuals anchor three years of consensus. The inflection: Technology mix crosses 50%, margins expand, and ARKA adds a full FY of contribution from FY27.

Revenue & EBITDA — Actuals + Consensus

EPS & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

Historical Financials — 6-Year Snapshot

FY (Jun)RevenueOp IncOp MgnNet IncDil EPSCFO
FY20$5,720M$458M8.0%$321M$12.61$519M
FY21$6,044M$539M8.9%$457M$18.30$592M
FY22$6,203M$496M8.0%$367M$15.49$746M
FY23$6,703M$568M8.5%$385M$16.43$388M
FY24$7,660M$650M8.5%$420M$18.60$497M
FY25$8,628M$764M8.9%$500M$22.32$547M
FY26E$9,536M~9.2%$515M$28.25–28.92$725M+
FY27E$10,607M$601M$47.90$801M
FY28E$11,265M$705M$53.04$880M

Margin & Growth Profile

Earnings Surprise Matrix last 8 quarters actuals

Beat both lines 6 of 8 quarters. Post-earnings reactions positive 6 of 8. Q3 FY26 prints April 23, 2026 — consensus rev $2.35B, EPS $6.90; options implying ~8% move.
PeriodReport DateRev ActualRev EstSurpriseEPS ActualEPS EstEPS Beat1-Day Move
Q2 FY24Jan 25 '24$1,834M$1,842M−$8M$4.36$4.50−$0.14−1.7%
Q3 FY24Apr 25 '24$1,937M$1,883M+$54M$5.74$5.53+$0.21+5.9%
Q4 FY24Aug 8 '24$2,038M$1,933M+$106M$6.61$5.90+$0.71+3.1%
Q1 FY25Oct 24 '24$2,057M$1,922M+$135M$5.93$5.08+$0.85+5.4%
Q2 FY25Jan 23 '25$2,100M$2,041M+$59M$5.95$5.17+$0.78−9.3%
Q3 FY25Apr 24 '25$2,167M$2,290M−$123M$6.23$5.53+$0.70+7.9%
Q4 FY25Aug 7 '25$2,304M$2,292M+$12M$8.40$6.54+$1.86+5.2%
Q1 FY26Oct 23 '25$2,288M$2,254M+$34M$6.85$6.20+$0.65+12.4%
Q2 FY26Jan 22 '26$2,220M$2,272M−$52M$6.81$6.41+$0.40+3.6%
Q3 FY26Apr 23 '26$2,349M$6.90Implied ±8.1%

Post-Earnings Behavior

EPS beat rate: 8 of 9 (89%)
Revenue beat rate: 6 of 9 (67%)
Avg 1-day post-EPS move: +3.6%
Most recent 4Q avg EPS beat: +$0.90

Price Action & Peer Benchmarking 3-year relative performance

CACI led the NatSecSvs group by ~2× from 2023–2024 highs; the recent pullback is a sector-wide re-rating, not company-specific deterioration.

Rebased to 100 · Apr 2023 = 100

Peer Valuation Snapshot

TickerPriceMkt CapP/E
CACI$519.32$11.5B22.2×
LDOS$153.91$19.5B13.8×
SAIC$96.52$4.4B12.5×
BAH$81.38$9.8B12.1×
KBR$36.99$4.7B10.6×
PLTR$146.72$336B232.9×
Observation. CACI trades at a ~70% P/E premium to its direct peer group but at a ~10× discount to PLTR despite overlapping DoD/IC end markets. The gap reflects CACI's lower software mix — but Technology segment growth (+10.4% YoY) is closing it.

52-Week Range Position

CACI
$519
Low $410 · High $684 · now 40% of range
LDOS
$154
Low $139 · High $206
BAH
$81
Low $74 · High $131

Analyst Ratings · Last 6 Months

FirmRatingPT (now)PT (prior)
UBSBuy$787$752
StifelBuy$765$670
TruistBuy$735$600
CitigroupNeutral$614$721
JP MorganOW$700$645
CantorOW$675$535
BofABuy$670
JefferiesHold$645$690
GoldmanBuy$624$567
TD CowenBuy$620$550

Revenue Mix · Q2 FY26

Technology 58.4% · +10.4% YoY (the driver)
Expertise 41.6% · −0.2% YoY
Tech mix was 54% in FY24 → structural re-mix in progress

Thematic Intersection Map where CACI catches the macro wave

Every theme in your research library that CACI has direct operating exposure to, mapped to disclosed dollar-denominated programs and awards.
Defense Budget Super-Cycle
Global military spend hit $2.7T in 2024 (+9.4% YoY, SIPRI record). U.S. FY26 DoD budget includes $66.1B for IT / cyberspace activities, +2.8% YoY — specifically earmarked for AI integration, EW modernization, and hardened networking.
CACI linkage: 52% of rev from DoD; $1.4B awards in Q2 alone; 1H FY26 awards +42.9% YoY
🛰
Space Domain Awareness / Overhead ISR
LEO sensor buildout, missile warning, and ground-based PED (processing, exploitation, dissemination) are the fastest-growing budget wedges inside the IC. Private comparables (Planet, Redwire, Rocket Lab) all at premium multiples.
CACI linkage: ARKA $2.6B acquisition (pending close) — space-based sensor portfolio + ground software. BofA: "positions CACI for programs like Golden Dome."
🎯
Missile Defense / Golden Dome
SHIELD IDIQ awarded in Jan 2026 with a $151B 10-year ceiling. 2,440+ awardees compete for task orders. No meaningful dollars obligated yet — the wave is coming.
CACI linkage: One of only 7 NatSecSvs primes on SHIELD. Capabilities in C4I, RF, space domain awareness line up directly with "layered protection against air, missile, space, cyber threats."
📡
Electronic Warfare / RF Dominance
EW spending globally is estimated to double by 2030 as Ukraine/Gaza playbooks propagate. Beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) satellite comm disruption, spectrum denial, and signals intelligence are priority capability gaps.
CACI linkage: Received first production order for RMTs (remote modular terminals) in Q2 FY26 — BLOS satcomm disruption. BofA flags "leading positions in EW."
🛡
AI-Turbocharged Cybersecurity
FY2026 $66.1B DoD IT budget with AI as a specific focus. DoW Zero Trust mandate deadline Sept 30, 2027. Agentic security, data-poisoning defense, and autonomous threat response are the three fastest-growing cyber sub-segments.
CACI linkage: Navy SeaPort NxG $85M task order (Mar '26) specifically for cybersecurity + naval engineering. Multi-year Navy cyber/engineering pipeline.
Agile Software & DoD Modernization
Pentagon IT overhaul explicitly prioritizing "software-driven solutions vs managed services / FTEs" — the exact axis BofA says separates high-growth/higher-valuation NatSecSvs names.
CACI linkage: $306M DLA DAI Global Model award (Apr 15, 2026) — Agile software dev for financial systems. CACI's Technology segment (58% of rev) captures this re-mix directly.

Scenario Analysis & Valuation Bridge bull / base / bear to FY27

Targets driven by FY27 consensus EBITDA ($1.32B) × multiple, cross-checked against EPS × P/E and DCF. Peer weighted average EV/EBITDA is 12× (LDOS/SAIC/BAH); BofA applies 16× (defense-prime multiple) to reflect CACI's technology mix.

Bull Case

Probability 30%
$820
+58% · 18× EV/EBITDA · FY27E
  • FY27 rev beats consensus ≥3% ($10.9B+) via ARKA contribution + SHIELD task orders flowing
  • EBITDA margin reaches 12.5% (vs 11.8% LTM) on tech re-mix
  • Re-rating to 18× as investors reclassify from "gov services" (12× group) toward "defense tech" (Palantir-adjacent)
  • $500M+ buyback plus ARKA accretion lifts FY27 EPS to ~$51

Base Case

Probability 50% · Recommended entry here
$685
+32% · 15.5× EV/EBITDA · FY27E
  • Consensus hits: FY27 rev $10.6B, EBITDA $1.32B, EPS $47.90
  • Multiple expands to 15.5× as ARKA closes, SHIELD momentum builds
  • Backlog remains >3× revenue, book-to-bill 1.1×+
  • Matches sell-side consensus avg $685 and BofA's methodology

Bear Case

Probability 20%
$430
−17% · 11× EV/EBITDA · FY27E
  • Extended continuing resolution or shutdown 2.0 delays obligations through FY27
  • DOGE cuts escalate beyond $703M affecting funded backlog, not just ceilings
  • ARKA integration slips or goodwill impairment
  • De-rate to peer-group 11× on soft organic growth (<4%)

Probability-Weighted Target

E[PT] = 0.30×$820 + 0.50×$685 + 0.20×$430 = $675
Implied return = +30% from $519
R / R = 2.3 : 1 upside-to-downside

Catalysts & Risk Register next 12 months

Upcoming Catalysts

Apr 23 '26
Q3 FY26 Earnings
Cons: $2.35B rev / $6.90 EPS · 8 of 9 Q beat · options implying ±8%
HIGH
Q3 '26
ARKA Close
$2.6B all-cash · regulatory clearance pending · guidance revision trigger
HIGH
2H CY26
SHIELD task orders
$151B ceiling · first meaningful obligations expected late '26
HIGH
Jul '26
Investor Day + FY27 guide
3-year financial targets refresh; first post-ARKA outlook
MED
Ongoing
Advana re-architecture
War Data Platform restructure · multi-vendor opportunity vs BAH incumbent
MED
Aug '26
Q4 + FY27 guide release
First full guide including ARKA
HIGH

Risk Register

HIGH
Budget / CR risk
43-day shutdown impact bleeds into 1H FY26 per BofA; O&M outlays −1.5% YoY
7/10
MED
ARKA integration
$2.6B deal = 23% of market cap; Blackstone exit dynamics; goodwill now $5.0B
6/10
MED
DOGE contract reviews
CACI took a $703M ceiling cut on EITaaS (mostly un-obligated); watch for encore
5/10
MED
Clearance-holder wages
Labor is 60%+ of cost base; TS/SCI talent tight; insourcing pressure from CDAO
5/10
LOW
Re-compete cycle
Embedded recompete risk on existing $32.8B backlog — historical win rate >90%
3/10
MED
Multiple compression
22× P/E premium to peers (~12×) vulnerable if Tech segment growth decelerates
6/10
LOW
Customer concentration
96% federal — but within federal, DoD+IC+Civ well-diversified across agencies
3/10

Synthesizing the Analyst View Street consensus

BofA — 2026 Top Pick

$670
Buy · 16× EV/EBITDA CY26E
"CACI is the best positioned NatSecSvs player going into 2026. Strong portfolio of capabilities in C4I, EW, signals detection and signals intelligence, space domain awareness, and secure networks. Its acquisitive strategy, including the ARKA deal, aligns with future warfare trends and positions CACI for programs like Golden Dome."
— Mariana Perez Mora, Ronald J. Epstein · Jan 20, 2026

Consensus Price Target Distribution — 16 analysts tracked

Putting It All Together the one-page take

The fundamentals say quality: 9% rev CAGR over six years, margin expansion, 3.7× revenue backlog coverage, and free cash flow compounding through both organic growth and disciplined M&A.

The thematic map says alignment: CACI is a direct operating exposure to every high-conviction theme in your research library — defense budget super-cycle, AI-driven C4ISR, space domain awareness, missile defense, electronic warfare, and agile software modernization. The ARKA deal formalizes the space leg; the SHIELD IDIQ formalizes the missile-defense leg; the RMT production order formalizes the EW leg.

The price action says opportunity: Stock is down 24% from the Nov '25 high of $683 despite management raising FY26 guidance on every metric. The pullback was sector-wide (LDOS, BAH, SAIC all down 20%+) triggered by shutdown-era O&M softness and DOGE noise — a macro head-fake, not a business deterioration.

The Street says conviction: Strong Buy consensus (77.8% bullish among 9 analysts), BofA top pick with $670 PO, seven "Buy" upgrades with targets ranging $600–$787. The Jefferies downgrade to Hold is the marginal dissent — not a rejection of the thesis.

The verdict: This is a +30% probability-weighted setup in 12 months, with three discrete catalysts (Apr 23 print, ARKA close, SHIELD flows) any one of which can re-accelerate the multiple. The asymmetry (−17% bear / +58% bull) is the most attractive it's been since early 2024. If you want one public-market ticker that expresses the full defense-tech thesis from your Space — without the hype premium of PLTR or the mess of legacy gov services at BAH/LDOS — CACI is the cleanest shot.